Texas Hill Country Flash Floods (July 2026)

Summary

Overnight July 15-16, 2026, catastrophic flash flooding struck the Texas Hill Country - Kerr, Kendall, Uvalde, and Comal counties - for the second consecutive year. Roughly 20-24 inches of rain fell; the Guadalupe and Pedernales rivers reached major flood stage, prompting mandatory evacuations, 230+ rescues, and at least two deaths (a 65-year-old Kerrville man whose mobile home was swept away, and a 74-year-old man in Uvalde County who drove into high water). The flooding hit the same areas as the July 4, 2025 disaster that killed 139 people, including campers at Camp Mystic. 2026 figures are early — no six-month impact assessment yet.

Three months assessment pending. Target cutoff Oct 16, 2026. Figures will use only sources available on or before that date.

Six months assessment pending. Target cutoff Jan 16, 2027. Figures will use only sources available on or before that date.

Scientific attribution

Attribution for Hill Country flash floods is the "climate loaded the dice" type rather than "impossible without climate change." A warmer atmosphere holds about 4% more moisture per degree C of warming; the Office of the State Climatologist of Texas found the state has already seen up to a ~15% increase in extreme rainstorms this century. Rapid attribution of the July 2025 event (ClimaMeter; Faranda et al.) found the driving meteorological conditions were up to ~7% wetter than similar past events and concluded natural variability alone could not explain the change. The 2026 National Academies extreme-weather report lists heavy rainfall among the highest-confidence categories for attribution. Because this region ("Flash Flood Alley") also has high natural flood variability, single-event attribution is framed as increased likelihood/intensity, not sole causation. Verify figures against the primary studies before treating as final.